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The $16 trillion forecast by BCG for the tokenization market by 2030 might be conservative. Here’s a more detailed look at the projections and the reasoning behind this sentiment:
BCG’s Forecast:
* In a report from September 2022, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and ADDX projected the asset tokenization market to reach $16.1 trillion by 2030. This represented a 50-fold increase from the $310 billion market size at the time. They anticipated tokenized assets would represent 10% of global GDP by the end of the decade.
* More recently, in an April 2025 report developed with Ripple, BCG revised their forecast, predicting the tokenized asset market could reach $18.9 trillion by 2033. This includes stablecoins and tokenized deposits. They presented a range of estimates, from a conservative $12 trillion to an optimistic $23.4 trillion by 2033.
Why Some Believe These Figures Are Conservative:
* Early Stage of Adoption: The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) is still in its nascent stages. While there’s growing momentum and increasing institutional interest, the actual percentage of traditionally traded assets that have been tokenized remains very small. Some reports indicate that as of late 2024/early 2025, only a tiny fraction (e.g., 0.001346% of the $867 trillion global RWA value) exists on-chain, highlighting the immense potential for future growth.
* Expanding Use Cases: The applications of tokenization are continuously evolving and expanding beyond initial focus areas like bonds and real estate. Future growth could be driven by the tokenization of more complex and less liquid assets, such as:
* Private equity and venture capital
* Hedge funds
* Infrastructure projects
* Carbon credits
* Art and collectibles
* Intellectual property
* Technological Advancements: As blockchain technology matures, becomes more scalable and interoperable, and as regulatory frameworks become clearer, the barriers to widespread adoption of tokenization will likely decrease. This could lead to a faster-than-anticipated growth rate.
* Increased Institutional Adoption: While early adoption was driven by crypto-native firms, traditional financial institutions are increasingly exploring and launching tokenization initiatives. As more banks, asset managers, and market infrastructure providers embrace tokenization, the market size could grow significantly. Some forecasts suggest that the banking sector alone could account for over a third, and potentially over 50%, of all tokenized assets by the early 2030s.
* Efficiency and Cost Savings: Tokenization offers significant advantages in terms of efficiency (24/7 trading, faster settlement), reduced costs (fewer intermediaries, automated processes), and enhanced accessibility (fractional ownership, lower minimum investments). These benefits are likely to drive further adoption across various asset classes. For example, tokenized collateral management is identified as a highly profitable use case with potential savings in the hundreds of millions for every $100 billion in daily repo activity.
* Regulatory Clarity: While regulatory uncertainty remains a hurdle, progress is being made in various jurisdictions to provide clearer guidelines for digital assets and tokenization. Increased regulatory clarity will likely boost institutional confidence and further accelerate market growth.
Alternative Forecasts:
It’s worth noting that other firms also have optimistic outlooks on the tokenization market, although their specific figures and timelines may vary:
* Security Token Market reported the tokenized RWA market reached $17.88 billion as of March 2025, up significantly from $10 billion in 2024.
* Standard Chartered has projected tokenized assets could reach $30.1 trillion by 2030.
* Roland Berger forecasts the value of tokenized assets to exceed $10.9 trillion by 2030.
* Grand View Research expects the global tokenization market to reach $13.53 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 24.09% from 2022 to 2030 (this figure might focus more broadly on tokenization technologies beyond just asset tokenization).
* McKinsey & Company estimated a more conservative $2 trillion by 2030 (excluding cryptocurrencies and stablecoins), with a bullish scenario of up to $4 trillion.
In conclusion, while BCG’s $16 trillion (from the 2022 report) or $18.9 trillion (from the 2025 report) forecasts are substantial, the underlying drivers of tokenization, the early stage of market development, and the potential for broader adoption across diverse asset classes lead many to believe that the actual market size by 2030 (or the early 2030s) could indeed be significantly higher. The key will be the continued evolution of technology, regulation, and institutional participation.

Video courtesy of CSOB

Video courtesy of CSOB